Traditional pay TV to shed 14 million more subs by 2022

The increasing popularity of virtual multichannel video services along with the staying power of traditional, big-subscription TV packages are ...

Pay TV losses slowed in Q1
Pay TV losses slowed in Q1

The increasing popularity of virtual multichannel video services along with the staying power of traditional, big-subscription TV packages are still expected to account for more than 70% of households through 2022, according to the latest forecast from Kagan, a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence. However, cord cutting is projected to reduce the overall number of households with a subscription to live linear channels in the near-term outlook.

Consumer appetites for traditional multichannel TV packages are waning, driving expectations for a contraction in the number of households in the United States with a classic cable, telco or satellite video offering. While skinny bundles from so-called virtual multichannel platforms are tapping into the demand to downsize the traditional "cable" bill, growth in self-aggregating, online-only households, as well as homes that rely on antennas for over-the-air (OTA) reception, are expected to pressure take rates.

Kagan's forecast through 2022 indicates:

  • Traditional residential multichannel households, excluding commercial and dual-subscription households, are projected to decrease by 14.3 million to 75.4 million.
  • Virtual multichannel households are projected to increase by 10.6 million to 15.3 million.
  • Combined traditional and virtual multichannel households are projected to decrease by 3.7 million to 90.4 million.
  • Online video only households are projected to increase by 6 million to 18.2 million.
  • Over-the-air households, excluding antenna-equipped multichannel subs, are projected to increase 3.1 million to 19.1 million.
More in OTT