Forecast: 743 million SVOD subs by 2023

According to Rethink TV, subscription video on demand (SVOD) uptake is accelerating, and in terms of hours viewing per day it will draw level ...

According to Rethink TV, subscription video on demand (SVOD) uptake is accelerating, and in terms of hours viewing per day it will draw level with broadcast TV globally by 2023.

Rethink TV forecasts 478 million SVOD subscribers today growing to 743 million by 2023, with China having the most SVOD subscribers by 2023, but North America still driving the largest dollar volume.

The research house anticipates the U.S. market rising from a combined paid SVOD (including vMVPD) reaching 236.6 million subscriptions by the end of 2023, from a base today of some 146.5 million.

Europe and Asia are expected to be neck and neck in SVOD revenues by 2023, but with far fewer subscribers in Europe, each paying significantly more than those in Asia, a region dominated by large advertising-supported VOD (AVOD) streaming numbers.

Netflix is expected to continue to lead in SVOD in both subscriber numbers (outside of China), but will make up 194 million SVOD customers out of 743 million globally by 2023, some 26% of total global subscribers. In the United States, Netflix today represents 44% of subscriptions, but is expected to be only 31% of the increased U.S. subscription levels by 2023.

One of the new leaders in the U.S. market is expected to be WarnerMedia, under its new AT&T-defined freemium strategy reaching 29.6 million SVOD homes by 2023. Disney is also expected to have multiple SVOD service types, but is epected to struggle outside the United States.

Europe is expected to be a mishmash of different approaches with pure play U.S. operators like Netflix and Amazon now established, U.S. studios beginning to stake a claim, and local broadcasters ganging up to challenge them, while the region has its own pure play SVOD players also such as Maxdome, Sky, Zattoo, and Rakuten TV.

The Asia Pacific market is highly skewed, with China expected to amass 245 million SVOD subscribers, some 72% of the total region, but the average spend is expected to be just $2 to $3 a month. Latin American is a three-horse race among the leader Netflix, America Movil's Claro TV and Televisa's Blim, with U.S. studios looking to play king-maker there.

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