Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: "At first glance, this does not indicate a massive cord-cutting problem. However, the number of non-pay TV homes will climb from 20.7 million to 33.3 million over the same period (as the number of households will continue to increase). To put it another way, pay TV penetration will drop from 87.1% in 2012 to 80.3% in 2021."
Pay TV revenues (subscriptions and on-demand) in North America peaked in 2015 at $111.64 billion, the research house says. Digital TV Research forecasts that revenues will fall by 12.1% - or $13.54 billion - to $98.10 billion in 2021. Cable revenues are expected to decline by $10.76 billion - $2.14 billion less from analog cable and $8.62 billion lower for digital cable. Satellite TV is expected to lose a further $2.13 billion, and IPTV $650 million.