Pay TV declining in the States, growing abroad

Digital TV Research forecasts the addition of 81 million pay TV subscribers globally between 2018 and 2024, up by 8% and taking the global total to 1.10 billion. Based ...

Crystal Ball

Digital TV Research forecasts the addition of 81 million pay TV subscribers globally between 2018 and 2024, up by 8% and taking the global total to 1.10 billion. Based on forecasts for 138 countries, the number of pay TV subs passed 1 billion in 2018.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: "Every quarter we hear of alarming cord-cutting in the U.S. This will continue, with the U.S. losing nearly 10 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024. About 28 of the 138 countries will lose subscribers between 2018 and 2024."

"However, it is not all bad news - 110 countries will gain subscribers," Murray said. "Asia Pacific will contribute six of the top 10 countries by pay TV subscriber additions. From the 81 million additional pay TV subs between 2018 and 2024, 29 million will come from India, 16 million from China and 8 million from Indonesia."

China is expected to continue to supply about a third of the world's pay TV subscribers, with 356 million expected by 2024. India is expected to bring in another 17% of the total by 2024, or 187 million. China and India together are expected to provide half the world's pay TV subscribers by 2024.

Telco IPTV is the winning pay TV platform so far. IPTV is expected to add 100 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to 357 million. IPTV overtook pay satellite TV subs in 2018.

Other forecast from Digital TV Research indicate that AVOD (advertising expenditure attributed to OTT TV episodes and movies) will more than double between 2018 and 2024 to reach $56 billion across 138 countries. Online TV and video advertising has been boosted in recent years by the rapid growth in mobile advertising.

AVOD in the Asia Pacific region is long-established. It reached $10.73 billion by 2018, 49% of the global total. Despite more than doubling to $25.14 billion by 2024, Asia Pacific's share is expected to fall to 45% as growth in other regions accelerates.

From the $34.42 billion additional revenues expected to be generated between 2018 and 2024, Asia Pacific is expected to contribute $14.41 billion and North America $14.20 billion. All of the other regions are expected to at least double their totals.

Murray said: "China is the largest AVOD country - commanding 36% of the 2018 global total, with $7.78 billion. Similar to much of Asia, most OTT viewing in China is on mobile phones to AVOD-supported platforms. China will still generate 29% of the global total by 2024 with $16.60 billion."

Murray continued: "However, the U.S. will become the AVOD leader by 2023. Several large platform launches are expected in the near future in the U.S. The U.S. will more than triple its AVOD total between 2018 and 2024 to $19.23 billion, or 34% of the global total."        

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