Digital TV Research forecasts 131.20 million gross over-the-top (OTT) subscription VOD (SVOD) subscriptions in western Europe by 2024, doubling from 65.19 million by end-2018. About 13 million OTT video subscribers are expected to be added in 2019 alone, with a similar number of additions expected in 2020.
SVOD homes are expected to pay for an average of 1.71 SVOD subscriptions by 2024, up from 1.42 in 2018. About 43.4% of TV households are expected to have at least one SVOD subscription by 2024, up from 26.3% in 2018. Penetration is expected to reach nearly two-thirds of TV households in Norway, but to be less than 30% in Italy.
Gross SVOD subscriptions are expected to represent 74.2% of western European TV households by 2024, double from 37.3% at end-2018. Germany, Italy, France and Spain are all expected to be below the regional average by 2024. Five countries are expected to be above 100% of TV households.
Netflix is expected to remain the largest pan-regional SVOD platform, with 54.86 million paying subscribers expected by 2024, or 42% of the region's total. That proportion is down from 54% in 2018, but the platform is still expected to add 20 million subscribers.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: "Disney+ will make a strong and immediate impact, given its extensive brand recognition and impressive content lineup. We forecast 19.18 million paying subscribers by 2024 - fast approaching Amazon Prime Video."
